000
AXNT20 KNHC 192354
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT WED MAY 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE REMAINS AT A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-6N BETWEEN 23W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE 
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 40W-50W 
WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE WAVE AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
LARGELY PROPAGATING WESTWARD INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EXTREME NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF 
10N BETWEEN 77W-83W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N26W 4N46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL 
NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF 8N BETWEEN 30W-44W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S-SW TO THE NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS TWO 
SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 
JACKSONVILLE TO NAPLES AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA FROM 21N88W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N89W. THE 
SURFACE FORCING MECHANISMS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS E OF A LINE FROM 30N85W TO 21N89W...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF W 
OF 90W IS EXPERIENCING E TO SE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
28N88W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N W OF 74W... 
INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 75W N OF 
18N CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EASTERN CUBA THIS 
EVENING. FARTHER TO THE SE...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE 
SKIRTING THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND MOST 
OF PANAMA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REGION IN THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THIS CONVECTION. 
ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. TROPICAL ATLC 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. 
SEABOARD TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
LOCATED EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. THIS AREA 
OF PRECIPITATION IS ALSO LOCATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 28N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W TO 18N74W AND CONTINUES TO 
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN 
CUBA AND THE SE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 73W-76W. FARTHER 
EAST...ANOTHER SMALLER SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
EASTERLY FLOW ALONG 55W FROM 18N-22N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING GENERALLY NE TO E FLOW UP TO 25 KT FROM 
THE COAST OF W AFRICA TO 50W. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT SKIRTS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N36W TO 31N40W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN