000
AXNT20 KNHC 191746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT WED MAY 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W TO THE SOUTH OF 
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SHOWERS ARE IN COASTAL COLOMBIA ON THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N ALONG 76W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...BETWEEN 78W AND 81W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 8N/9N ALONG 13W TO 4N30W
4N44W INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 16W...
FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 
30W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN FRENCH GUIANA TO 
THE NORTH OF 3N AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SURINAME AND 
EASTERN GUYANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LINE FROM BARBADOS TO 23N29W CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS 
SENEGAL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CROSSES MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRETTY MUCH ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THE 78W
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND IN THE 
WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW
IS FROM THE EAST TO THE EAST OF 64W...AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST 
EVERYWHERE ELSE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF LOW CLOUDS
IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N71W...TO 22N73W IN THE SOUTHERN 
BAHAMAS...TO 20N73W ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF HAITI. IT IS NOT 
EASY TO DISCERN PRECIPITATION JUST WITH THIS TROUGH. HIGH CLOUDS 
THAT ARE RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH ARE STREAMING 
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO 21N61W. 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. OTHER 
POSSIBLE NEARBY SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 24N TO 
30N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N53W 
18N55W 13N57W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
14N52W 8N53W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 16N 
TO 24N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N10W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IN MOROCCO TO 18N18W. NO PRECIPITATION IS 
DISCERNIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THIS TROUGH. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT