000 AXNT20 KNHC 191044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ALSO OF NOTE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NORTH OF 20N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 41W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF PANAMA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 77W-81W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 5N46W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-7N BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT 5-10 KT FROM THE SE. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES REACHING 32N BETWEEN ALABAMA AND E TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N92W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF...W CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 80W-87W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 73W-76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...E GUATEMALA...ANS W HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 86W-90W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 66W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FROM PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 76W AND EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 80W AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N70W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 28N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 56W-65W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N46W. AGAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 30W-42W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER MOROCCO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 28N50W WITH SHOWERS. FURTHERMORE EXPECT...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS W OF 68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA