000 AXNT20 KNHC 190534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ALSO OF NOTE...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS NORTH OF 20N E OF 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 20W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 39W-46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 14N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 67W-69W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 76W-81W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 5N43W TO NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-6N BETWEEN 27W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC TO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT 5-10 KT. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES REACHING 32N BETWEEN ALABAMA AND E TEXAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF...W CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 80W-89W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 72W-76W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...S BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA...FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 86W-92W. FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER SW HAITI. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N79W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING W TO BEYOND 80W AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N70W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N21W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N29W 28N43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N48W. AGAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 50W-44W. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N11W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER MOROCCO. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N33W TO 28N45W WITH SHOWERS. FURTHERMORE EXPECT...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS W OF 68W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA