000 AXNT20 KNHC 181710 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N43W 3N45W...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 46W. SOME PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN A SMALL AREA THAT IS NEAR 1S47W ALONG THE BRAZIL COAST. ANY OTHER NEARBY IS IN THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N27W TO 5N41W INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO NICARAGUA/HONDURAS AND BEYOND CUBA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N75W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...CUBA ALONG 80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO 30N80W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N83W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE WATERS AND LAND OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM EASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W...TO 24N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BEYOND 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVE IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...AND THEN THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE YESTERDAY AT 17/1800 UTC HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD SLIGHTLY...NOW ALONG 20N67W...TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 17N71W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD IN BROAD SURFACE FLOW FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT HAS BEEN RAINING OFF AND ON DURING THE DAY IN PUERTO RICO...AND EASILY POSSIBLY ACROSS THE OTHER ISLANDS AND OPEN WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. FOUR INCHES OF RAIN WERE OBSERVED IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE MUNICIPALITY OF YABUCOA ALONG THE RIO GUAYANES. THE WARNING WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN GUADELOUPE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 18/1200 UTC. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 50W AND BEYOND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N58W 20N59W 15N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 29N35W TO 28N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N58W 20N59W 15N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N12W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE MOROCCO COAST TO 17N17W AND 11N20W. NO PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT