000 AXNT20 KNHC 180544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 34W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 60W-63W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 63W-66W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR 10N72W. NO OTHER DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N20W 3N30W 4N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 23W-34W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 40W-48W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 7N44W TO 1N41W WHICH MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME OF THE CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUST W OF JACKSONVILLE NEAR 31N82W TO NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO 26N85W. SHOWERS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N88W TO NEAR 17N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY SURFACE RIDGING NEAR A 1015 MB HIGH OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N93W WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DRAWING MODERATE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN GULF SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE NW GULF DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS TEXAS PUSHES SE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL GULF WATERS BEFORE WEAKENING THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING TO RE-ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WRN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF PANAMA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW GULF AND CUBA N OF 15N W OF 78W. STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND ACROSS GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA ALONG 21N67W TO 17N70W. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. AS A RESULT OF THE ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1030 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 38N20W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE IMPACTING AREAS N OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N67W TO 22N70W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND EXTENDS ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA FROM 21N67W TO 17N70W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE FINAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO 18N57W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC FROM NEAR SRN SPAIN TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 17N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON