000 AXNT20 KNHC 171054 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER E OF ITS PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE WAVE LIES JUST E OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS JUST E OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUYANA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 58W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 68W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 65W-71W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22W-26W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 30W-34W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 35W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 46W-49W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 50W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 90W IS ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AT 31N86W TO 26N89W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS MUCH OF NRN FLORIDA N OF 28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SE GULF S OF 24N E OF 87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 19N93W TO 16N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 19N W OF 95W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 90W. THE AREA OF ACTIVITY RANGES FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 79W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF NICARAGUA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 30N71W...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W...AND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 38N19W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WELL N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 65W-67W. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON