000 AXNT20 KNHC 170559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES E OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO INDICATE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 28W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS JUST E OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER GUYANA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 58W-61W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 67W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 63W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-26W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 33W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 46W-49W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 50W-54W...AND S OF 3N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 91W IS ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUPPORTING AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 89W N OF 26N INCLUDING AREA OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT 30N87W TO 27N90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO S OF TEXAS FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 95W-99W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 91W. THE AREA OF ACTIVITY RANGES FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 82W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAJORITY OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 27N54W...AND A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 40N17W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING FROM PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A BROAD AND FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA TO APPROACH THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON