000 AXNT20 KNHC 162356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 1N-9N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W FROM 2N-11N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN ANOTHER SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SURINAME FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 54W-58W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W FROM 2N-10N. THE WAVE EXTENDS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE GFS MODEL DISTINCTLY DEPICTS THIS WAVE AT 850 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 65W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE AT 8N12W TO 4N28W 1N35W TO N BRAZIL AT 2N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 32N93W TO 28N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 86W-89W MOVING E. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS NUMEROUS STRIKES E OF THE TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 96W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF COCOA BEACH FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. 10 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 15-20 KT E WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO NOTED. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND PANAMA AND INLAND COSTA RICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 77W-85W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM N NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 13N W OF 83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N36W 27N43W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS E OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N19W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 28N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 30W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N11W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 4N32W. EXPECT... THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 30N BETWEEN 45W-65W WITH SHOWERS. FURTHERMORE EXPECT...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA W OF 78W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA