000 AXNT20 KNHC 161804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W MAY OR MAY NOT BE RELATED TO JUST THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ...THE ITCZ... 9N11W 2N34W 2N43W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-17W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N30W TO 3N37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TO OKLAHOMA/THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 30N100W...POSSIBLY TO THE EAST OF AND/OR ENCOMPASSING ROCKSPRINGS TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 23N INTO MEXICO...NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 100W FROM 20N TO 25N IN MEXICO. OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. A SURFACE TROUGH HUGS THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO EAST TEXAS...INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS FROM 29N INLAND TO 31N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AT THE EDGE OF THE BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...IN A SECOND AND SEPARATE AREA FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N. THE CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HUG THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES FROM PANAMA NEAR 10N80W TO NICARAGUA AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. OTHER SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND LAND. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS AND LINES OF LOW CLOUDS...FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. GUADELOUPE OBSERVED NEARLY 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 16/1200 UTC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT STILL IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N25W AND 16N34W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N36W TO 31N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N38W TO 27N46W AND 24N56W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT