000 AXNT20 KNHC 161115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD BUT WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 19W-28W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 46W-52W AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 52W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BUT STILL REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 9N11W 2N34W 2N43W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-17W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 37W-46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 5N30W TO 3N37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS S GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 25N GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND LAGUNA MADRE. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER LOUISIANA AND INTO THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 88W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N96W TO OVER GALVESTON BAY TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM 26N86W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO JUST W OF VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH THE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE NE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 23N-26N E OF 84W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BUT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE N GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INDUCING A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HAITI TO E PANAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 20N79W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MON...THUS EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. CONVERGENCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA TO 13N. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COLOMBIA BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 32N75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-26N W OF 77W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAKENING BUT BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W AND A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 29N49W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING TO 26N50W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 47W ALSO COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE