000
AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 3N-10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. 
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MOISTURE 
EXTENDING TO 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N 
BETWEEN 20W-26W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 3N-11N MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN ANOTHER SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N  
BETWEEN 46W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W FROM 2N-10N. THE WAVE EXTENDS INLAND 
OVER SURINAME AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE GFS MODEL 
DISTINCTLY DEPICTS THIS WAVE AT 850 MB. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 54W-58W. 

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W TO 6N23W 
2N40W TO N BRAZIL AT 3N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-5N BETWEEN 37W-46W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N94W TO 
26N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE LINE MOVING E. LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS NUMEROUS STRIKES 
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE 
MEXICO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 97W-99W. 
FURTHER E...10 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF WITH MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 20 KT E WINDS ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO 
NOTED. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE E TO THE E 
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND N 
COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-75W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-82W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 
70W-80W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W. EXPECT... LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N39W 
28N50W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W 25N50W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITH 15 NM OF BOTH FEATURES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N67W. 
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE 
FRONTAL FEATURES TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA