000 AXNT20 KNHC 151800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1740 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FOUND INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 55W MOVING WEST ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 290 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 22W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY CARRIED IN THE ITCZ WITH EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MODERATE MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 23W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 9N13.5W WESTWARD ALONG 5.5N20W 2N30W 3N40W 4.5N50W INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST BETWEEN 24W AND 44W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OFFSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AFRICAN COAST INCLUDING GHANA...COTE D'IVOIRE...AND SOUTHERN LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS ENHANCING SOME STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 93W. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS IN THIS REGION PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYZED FROM 28N94W SW TO 26N95W. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 KT. OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEAR 18.5N94W PRODUCING WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS 30 NM WITHIN THE CENTER. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 22N. WEAK TO MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS PLACE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THESE AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW 15 TO 20 KT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...LOOK FOR MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN NORTH OF 25N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL BASIN FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND DISCUSSION TO STAY UPDATED. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW EAST OF 75W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN SOUTH OF 13N DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY...MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NORTH OF 17N EAST OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A SET OF 1025 MB HIGHS NEAR 30N70W AND 30N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 29N60W. FROM THIS POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 28N60W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT....AND WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF 32N. THE REMAINING STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE SAME LOCATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM 30N40W TO 25N50W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA