000 AXNT20 KNHC 151043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 44W-50W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SECOND MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 50W-56W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 3N29W 3N40W 6N50W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF A LINE FROM 3N28W 2N36W TO 5N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ FROM 23W-27W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N E OF 11W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS S MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF WATERS S OF 24N W OF 91W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING NE OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDS INTO THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF 93W WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER TEXAS AND AT 15/0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA BETWEEN 92W-94W AND SE OF THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 27.5N89W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA ACROSS THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FAR W ATLC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SOME FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 22N-25N E OF 88W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO COVER THE E GULF MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E DIMINISHING THE WINDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THAT EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA TO S NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO NICARAGUA CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E DIMINISHING THE WINDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CONVERGENCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED/ HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA W OF 79W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE AREA S OF THE LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N69W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 70W-74W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 27W-50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING ALONG 28N52W TO 28N58W BECOMING DISSIPATING STATIONARY ALONG 29N62W TO 31N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N43W TO 23N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N E OF 65W TO OVER SW AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE