000 AXNT20 KNHC 142356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 17W FROM 2N TO 9N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 1N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SECOND MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 41W AND 46W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 51W FROM 2N TO 11N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE CORRESPONDS TO THE SAME MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS THE ONE ALONG 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 56W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 1N30W 1S40W 1SN51W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST INCLUDING LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND WESTERN ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEST OF 93W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N95W SOUTHWARD ALONG 25N94W 22N95W. WEAK TO MODERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW A SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15 KT. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BASIN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WEST OF 70W. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN SOUTH OF 13N DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW EAST OF 70W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OVER THIS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NORTH OF 17N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS STARTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD PUSHING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N43W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 30N60W TO 29N60W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 35 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF 32N. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LATITUDE...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 41N23W TO 18N45W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE WEST OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH IS FOUND NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N55W TO 18N58W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 8 KT. OTHERWISE...COMPUTER MODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA