000 AXNT20 KNHC 141747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. THIS MAY END UP BEING TREATED AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NEAR FUTURE BASED ON ITS ORIGIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N38W 7N40W 2N41W MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N IN BRAZIL TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W...AND FROM 4N IN FRENCH GUIANA TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 5N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W AND 1S52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N20W 4N24W 4N27W 4N29W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO HONDURAS AND BEYOND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AS SOME OF IT MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE REST OF THE FLOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 103W...ENCOMPASSING THE TEXAS BIG BEND AND NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 23N94W...IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE WATERS...SOME ARE DISSIPATING WITH TIME...FROM COASTAL HONDURAS ALONG 85W TO BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THAT IS PART OF BROADER AND LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW... COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE MONA PASSAGE...BEYOND 20N60W. BROAD SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE EVERYWHERE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N82.5W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N70W TO 27N73W 20N74W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W TO 22N...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N74W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N43W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT ENDS NEAR 32N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N64W TO 32N72W AND 32N74W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE 24N41W 14N45W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN MOROCCO AND 30W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANIES A TROUGH THAT PASSES ON TOP OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND CONTINUES UNTIL 21N26W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N41W 19N44W 14N45W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 43W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N53W 17N56W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N48W 24N52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT