000 AXNT20 KNHC 141045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SECOND MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N22W 7N35W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 13W-15W AND WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA BETWEEN 8W-11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS S MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH THE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE SE US. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH SOME FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA E OF 84W. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E DIMINISHING THE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THAT EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA TO THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 70W RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E DIMINISHING THE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 12N82W BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVERGENCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA W OF 80W TO THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 29N74W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 26N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 68W-73W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT CLIPS THE N PORTION OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N59W TO 31N71W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N50W TO 21N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N FROM 30W-60W MASKING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE