000 AXNT20 KNHC 140540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 10N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT THE WAVE ALONG 37W/38W IS EMBEDDED. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 2N28W 5N42W 2N52W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE BETWEEN 11W-13W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS S MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH THE SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 87W FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE SE US. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE GULF TONIGHT WITH SOME FAST MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E DIMINISHING THE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THAT EXTENDS ACROSS E CUBA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 70W CLEAR TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E DIMINISHING THE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE AREA S OF 15N E OF 75W OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONVERGENCE OF UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N74W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE SW ATLC EXTENDING FROM 27N68W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W AND 72W INCLUDING THE EASTERN MOST ISLANDS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 28N BETWEEN 44W-62W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST N OF THE REGION. TWO WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERN MOST IS ALONG 52W FROM 19N-25N WITH THE SECOND ALONG 40W FROM 18N-22N. HOWEVER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 24N FROM 30W-60W MASKING ANY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TROUGHS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE