000 AXNT20 KNHC 140000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 2N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FOUND ALONG 44W FROM 2N TO 12N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE CORRESPONDS TO THE SAME MOISTURE MAXIMUM MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 3.5N20W 3N30W 4.5N40W 2N53W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 30W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 13W INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS OF COTE D'IVOIRE...LIBERIA...AND SIERRA LEONE. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW A SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-20 KT. EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WEST OF 65W. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND PANAMA. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN SOUTH OF 14N DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT...FROM A STRONG AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND GIVING THIS REGION FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A KEEPING THE REGION UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER...AT SURFACE...A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N50W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N60W TO 26N68W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 50W FROM 16N TO 25N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH IS FOUND ALONG 39W FROM 17N TO 23N PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 10 KT. OTHERWISE...COMPUTER MODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA