000
AXNT20 KNHC 131739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
2N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N38W 7N40W 1N42W
MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N TO 9N
BETWEEN 38W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 5N
TO 11N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 5N20W 4N30W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR
2S46W. 3N22W 4N24W 3N32W 1N41W 1N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO 
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W IN THE BORDER AREAS
OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE
THAT IS ROUGHLY ALONG 93W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING 
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS RIDGE...AND THEY COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF HAITI. UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MOVES 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERING THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE 
LINE FROM NICARAGUA TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TROUGH TO BE RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
AND NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN 81W 
AND 82W. BROAD SURFACE EASTERLY TRADEWINDS COVER THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 80W.
A DEVELOPING STORM THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AREA SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT RUNS FROM 31N50W TO 26N60W 26N65W TO 25N68W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 43W. ONE SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 23N35W 20N38W 18N38W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 
30W AND 40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W FROM 16N TO 
23N. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT