000 AXNT20 KNHC 131037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12W FROM 5N TO 11N MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST AND IS LOCATED FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-18W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W FROM 1N TO 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...IT COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 24W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 26W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 1N TO 10N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS MOST PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 35W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 1N TO 7N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 46W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W FROM 2N TO 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W FROM 3N TO 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 4N20W 5N40W 3N49W 4N59W. ASIDE FROM AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 88W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BASIN THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND THINS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM DISSIPATED CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. BRISK SE SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA. NW OF THIS AXIS...DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW IS NOTED PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 11N. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 85W. MOIST SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE TO OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE TRADE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE TRANSPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. A RECENT 13/0214 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE STRONG TRADES WITH AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WIND RETRIEVALS BETWEEN 68W TO 81W. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED FUNNELING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 37N53W TO 30N54W TO 27N61W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N49W TO 24N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW S OF 26N W OF 65W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TO THE SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 48W FROM 16N-22N AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 45W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES N OF 14N E OF 45W...HOWEVER AN AREA OF STRONG N TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT IS LOCATED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 14N-24N E OF 30W. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS AREA OF STRONG WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN