000 AXNT20 KNHC 130555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12W FROM 4N TO 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST FROM 5N-9N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W FROM 1N TO 7N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...IT COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 1N TO 9N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS MOST PRONOUNCED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH ELEVATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 3N TO 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W TO 49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W FROM 3N TO 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM 5N TO 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH STRONGER CONVECTION LOCATED OVER NW VENEZUELA AND IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE MARACAIBO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N27W 6N36W 5N45W 7N58W. ASIDE FROM AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 90W IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE BASIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND THINS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. BRISK SE SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED AT THE SURFACE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ESTABLISHED OVER THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA. NW OF THIS AXIS...DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW IS NOTED PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. MOIST SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NE TO OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE TRADE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE TRANSPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. A RECENT 12/2238 UTC WINDSAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE TRADES WITH A SWATH OF 20 TO 30 KT WIND RETRIEVALS BETWEEN 68W TO 79W. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 36N55W TO 30N58W TO 27N70W AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 32N49W TO 25N67W. A SHEAR LINE IS THEN ANALYZED FROM THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW S OF 26N W OF 65W...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. TO THE SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 47W FROM 17N-21N AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 43W-49W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 32W. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES N OF 14N E OF 45W...HOWEVER AN AREA OF STRONG N TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT IS LOCATED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N-24N E OF 28W. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS AREA OF STRONG WINDS IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN