000 AXNT20 KNHC 130000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 6N MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. WAVE LOCATION IS BASED ON BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FOUND ALONG 35W FROM 1N TO 9N MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. THIS WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH AN AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W FROM 3N TO 7N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE IS THE SMALLEST OF THE THREE AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO ALIGNS WELL WITH A SMALL AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 5N9W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2.5N30W 4N40W 5N53W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 45W. NONE TO WEAK CONVECTION IS OCCURRING EAST OF 25W. HOWEVER...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST ALONG GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...AND LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS DISPERSED ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW A SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-20 KT. EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA IS ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THESE COUNTRIES. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN SOUTH OF 14N DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN EAST OF 80W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND DOWN THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N50W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 27N58W TO 24N69W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT EASTWARD PRODUCING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 33W FROM 19N TO 23N ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...DRY AND STABLE AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A STRONG AND BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND GIVING THIS REGION FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. ALSO...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STRONG SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N68W...KEEPING THE REGION UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA