000 AXNT20 KNHC 121729 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25/26W S OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LOCATION IS BASED ON BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 26W-29W...AND FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 25W-27W. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N32W TO 2N34W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH AN AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 27W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 31W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43/44W S OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND ALIGNS WELL WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 43W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 54W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ALONG 69W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO BEING OVER LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 65W-67W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N20W 4N30W 2N40W 5N50W 7N54W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 35W-39W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 49W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF MEXICO IN THE E PACIFIC. SOME MODERATE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM THE E PACIFIC AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NRN AND SWRN GULF SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS SUPPORTING SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NRN S AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION POURS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 80W-82W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ELY TRADEWIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N68W IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE W ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N50W ALONG 28N55W 26N62W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N69W. A SHEARLINE EXTENDS PAST THIS TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...AND POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEARLINE. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 23N31W TO 19N32W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE AREA BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR 48N35W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON