000
AXNT20 KNHC 121103
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT WED MAY 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N
TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH
OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N 
MOVING WEST 10 KT. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOMENT FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 
41W AND 44W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N 
MOVING WEST 10 KT. MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG 
THE BRAZIL AND NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA COASTS FROM 4N TO 7N 
BETWEEN 51W AND 54W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W TO 3N22W 4N24W 3N32W 1N41W 
1N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 7N
TO THE EAST OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W FROM 10N IN THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...ACROSS NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN 
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL HAITI. 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS AND/OR LINES OF LOW CLOUDS...
FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W...AND FROM EASTERN HONDURAS 
TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 58W FROM 10N TO 17N. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 
61W. THESE CLOUDS AND WEATHER MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IF THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION 
REMAIN INTACT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH 
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N60W.
THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N60W TO 26N70W. A REMNANT 
CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 26N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N51W 28N60W...AND FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 23N 
BETWEEN 62W AND 63W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 40W. WEAK REMNANTS OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG 20N28W 15N30W 6N38W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE 
EAST OF 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N30W 19N31W. BROKEN 
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 
20N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
24N41W 20N43W 16N43W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS 
AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N53W 19N57W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND 
57W. A FOURTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W FROM 10N TO 17N. 
BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT