000 AXNT20 KNHC 120603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THIS AREA WAS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ENDING AROUND 10/1800 UTC. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 5N21W 3N29W 5N35W 3N48W...INTO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE BRAZIL AND NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA COASTS FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 100W FROM 10N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 30N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N90W...ACROSS NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL HAITI... AND FROM PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS AND/OR LINES OF LOW CLOUDS...THAT EXTEND FROM ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W...AND FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W...AND MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IF THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN INTACT. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W 25N57W TO 19N59W SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 27N60W 25N65W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N65W TO 24N70W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 24N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N76W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W 28N60W 25N70W. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 40W. WEAK REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG 20N28W 15N30W 6N38W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 19N TO 23N. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N44W 19N43W 17N42W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N41W 17N44W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N53W 19N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 51W AND 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT