000
AXNT20 KNHC 112355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 21W FROM 1N TO 7N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. 
INFRA-RED SATELLITE DATA INDICATES SLIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING 
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-8N BETWEEN 20W-27W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 
10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING ALONG AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W FROM 1N TO 5N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. 
THIS WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION 
FOCUSED ON THE ITCZ. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1.5N-5N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 3N16W 3.5N27W 4N38W 4N52W. 
BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ WEST OF 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE...BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA SHOW EASTERLY 
FLOW 10-15 KT...WHILE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS 
DISPERSED ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW A SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-20 KT. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-22 KT FROM THE SAME DIRECTION 
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST OF 
COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF AN 
EASTERN PACIFIC SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN BASIN EAST OF 80W. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA DOWN THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N52W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 
28N57W 25N64W TO NEAR 23N70W. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE 
CONTINUES WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 22N78W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT NORTH OF 26N. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE 
EASTWARD WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 
22N52W TO 18N55W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM. THIS 
TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.  ELSEWHERE EAST OF 50W...A BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION 
AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA