000 AXNT20 KNHC 111800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N16W TO 3N18W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 1026 UTC INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO IS AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 25W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 39W S OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE WAS ADDED AFTER ANALYSIS OF COMPILATION OF LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGES USING THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS. THE WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND ALIGNS WELL WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE MOISTURE MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-41W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N53W TO 3N55W. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 47W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA ALONG 66W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LOCATION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 66W-70W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N2W 5N15W 3N23W 5N30W 2N40W 5N52W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 22W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF MEXICO IN THE E PACIFIC. SOME MODERATE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN FROM THE E PACIFIC AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND ACROSS THE NRN GULF SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN TEXAS IS SUPPORTING SE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ALSO EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN S AMERICA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-83W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ELY TRADEWIND FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED S OF JAMAICA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 66W-73W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N57W ALONG 28N63W 25N68W 24N73W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...30 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 29N58W TO 26N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA DOWN THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 23N52W TO 19N55W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 51W-54W. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A SECOND...AND WEAKER...SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 29N37W TO 26N41W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE AREA BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 48N35W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THIS AREA. MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N11W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N17W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED KINGDOM TO E OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON