000 AXNT20 KNHC 111057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16W TO THE SOUTH OF 8N...SURROUNDED BY BROAD MULTILAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING AND/OR ALREADY IS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THIS AREA WAS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ENDING AROUND 10/1800 UTC. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 51W/52W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N...REACHING BRAZIL AND JUST TO THE EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. IT WAS NOT EASY TO SPOT THIS WAVE IN THE LAST REMAINING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY. THE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N12W TO 4N29W TO 2N41W TO 3N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 1N TO 6N BETWEEN 59W AND 68W... BETWEEN GUYANA...VENEZUELA...AND COLOMBIA MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ BUT OVER LAND. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA... AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...TO THE WEST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 5N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF 8N74.5W IN COLOMBIA...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...TO THE EAST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS WITH THE 5N80W LOW CENTER...AND ALSO POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE SURFACE WIND IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS...AS SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N54W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N62W TO 17N74W. THIS TROUGH PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...IT CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA A BIT...TO A SPOT THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO HAITI AND JAMAICA BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 87W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N AND TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 25N64W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 30N61W TO 26N67W. THE FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 26N67W TO 25N70W. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 23N75W 28N64W BEYOND 32N56W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 30N58W 27N62W 24N64W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 26N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W FROM 19N TO 24N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 12N37W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT