000 AXNT20 KNHC 110557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... BROAD MULTILAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 18W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE DEVELOPING AND/OR ALREADY IS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THIS AREA WAS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ENDING AROUND 10/1800 UTC. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 51W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N...REACHING BRAZIL AND JUST TO THE EAST OF FRENCH GUIANA. IT WAS NOT EASY TO SPOT THIS WAVE IN THE LAST REMAINING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 4N27W TO 3N35W TO 4N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 57S AND 62W...FROM SOUTHERN SURINAME TO SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ BUT OVER LAND. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...AS A RESULT OF THE RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. SURFACE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W TO 17N73W. THIS TROUGH PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...IT CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA A BIT...TO A SPOT THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO HAITI BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 87W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N AND TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ON TOP OF BERMUDA TO 30N65W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 30N61W TO 27N68W. THE FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 27N68W TO 26N71W. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 25N70W 29N62W BEYOND 32N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 30N58W 27N62W 24N63W 21N63W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTH OF 25N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N60W 20N59W 16N60W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 12N38W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF 40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT