000 AXNT20 KNHC 102350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2335 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W BETWEEN 1N AND 7N MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS BEHIND THIS WAVE TO 24W AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONCENTRATED FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W FROM 3N TO 7N MOVING WEST AT 7 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION FOCUSED ON THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N20W 4N30W 4.5N40W 5.5N50W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA. THIS CONVECTION REACHES TO APPROXIMATELY 300 NM OFFSHORE THESE COUNTRIES. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE OBS ACROSS THE STATE OF FLORIDA SHOW EASTERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT. THIS WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF 27N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE WEST OF 83W...OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS AND OIL PLATFORMS DISPERSED OVER THE BASIN SHOW SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 20 KT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING NEAR THESE ISLANDS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ON AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...DRY STABLE AIR WILL TAKE COVER THESE ISLANDS...AND THUS WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO FAIR. MARINE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 25N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC...BEHIND THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 60W...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA