000 AXNT20 KNHC 101736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 7N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 5N41W TO 6N44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND HAS BECOME INDISCERNIBLE WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 5N19W 3N34W 6N49W 5N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SW AFRICA FROM THE BORDER OF GHANA/IVORY COAST THROUGH LIBERIA SE SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 47W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N TO ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-16W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 22W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 24N82W GIVING THE FLORIDA KEYS SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WARM FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER FAR SW LOUISIANA TO 26N92W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR 24N89W WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GIVING THE SE GULF DRY STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE COLD FRONT THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH THE GULF HAS DRIED OUT THE LOWER LEVELS GIVING THE AREA SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LITTLE...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINA AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE WW ATLC. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS IS BEGINNING TO BANK LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA NE INTO THE SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-71W INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL...FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WEST VIRGINIA COVERS THE W ATLC N OF THE A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N63W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR 25N79W WHERE THE FRONT DISSIPATES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT REMAIN WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N66W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 26N63W TO 23N63W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION AND GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE