000 AXNT20 KNHC 101034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 27W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 7N MOVING W 5 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W 3N30W 5N50W TO GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. BESIDES AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 8W-11W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 11W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 43W-47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE NW GULF ALONG 30N93W 27N90W. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE FRONTS. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S OF THE FRONTS. FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 100W-102W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N MEXICO N OF 19N...TEXAS...AND THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH E TO THE W ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NE TO FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE ...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAIN IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 71W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO S NICARAGUA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. FURTHER E...A WEAK 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 60W-63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 23N21W TO 20N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND W AFRICA. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR GUYANA AT 7N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR SIERRA LEONE AT 7N14W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND REACH 32N57W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA