000 AXNT20 KNHC 100541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 7N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 24W-30W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 7N MOVING W 5 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 6N27W 3N30W 6N50W TO GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. BESIDES AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 47W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N86W 26N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR HOUSTON AT 29N94W. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ALONG THE FRONTS. 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS S OF THE FRONTS. FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED INLAND OVER MEXICO FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 98W-103W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER N MEXICO N OF 19N...TEXAS...AND THE N GULF N OF 27N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH E TO THE W ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE ...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAIN IS OVER E HISPANIOLA E OF 72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM HAITI TO S NICARAGUA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. FURTHER E...A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 59W-63W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 23N20W TO 20N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND W AFRICA. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR GUYANA AT 7N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR SIERRA LEONE AT 7N14W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND REACH 32N58W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA