000 AXNT20 KNHC 082333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 7N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE NRN AXIS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE SRN AXIS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 23W-24W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 6N MOVING W 5 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 9N MOVING W 5-10 KT. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE LIES EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-8N. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N9W ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 4N40W 5N50W INTO NE SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N55W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 29W-34W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 51W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF PENSACOLA TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 31N85W 28N90W 29N96W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ALABAMA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 96W FROM 20N-25N. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC S OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE ERN GULF NEAR 26N85W. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE EWD AS THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR KEEPING MUCH OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. THE FIRST UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED S OF MEXICO. THE SECOND COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE FROM 20N65W 18N68W TO 15N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 18N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N56W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 35N51W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...MAINLY SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE...LINES THE FLORIDA COASTLINE FROM 31N81W TO 26N81W. ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE INLAND ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF 26N ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS ARE S OF THE RIDGE COVERING THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE FIRST EXTENDS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 20N65W 18N68W TO 15N71W ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 25N60W TO 21N61W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 53W FROM 20N-24N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED AREAS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED NE OF SPAIN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N13W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 28N18W TO NEAR 25N34W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. S OF THE FRONT...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 10N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON