000 AXNT20 KNHC 081036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1025 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 2.5N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 3N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 1N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE. STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5S TO 5N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 1N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS FOUND ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF IT FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE IN WEST AFRICA...WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 3N40W INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. BESIDES AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...LIBERIA AND COTE D'IVOIRE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 27N. LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...THOUGH LAST 3 HOURS HAS BECOME WEAKER. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THESE AREAS. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 21N64W TO 17N67W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 69W. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING FAIRLY SLOW AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL BASIN ANCHORED BY SEVERAL HIGHS OVER THESE REGIONS...A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 29N59W AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N46W. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 21N64W TO 17N67W...AND THE SECOND ONE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W FROM 20N TO 25N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE TROUGHS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N16W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N20W 25N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA