000 AXNT20 KNHC 080600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0550 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W FROM 2N TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 1N BETWEEN 15W AND 21W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 1N TO 6N MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE. STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4S TO 6N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THIS WAVE IS FOUND ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF IT FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF COTE D'IVOIRE IN WEST AFRICA...WESTWARD ALONG 3N10W 4N20W 1N30W 3N40W INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA...SIERRA LEONE...LIBERIA AND COTE D'IVOIRE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AROUND A SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN NEAR 26N83W. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 27N. LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY LATE MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THESE AREAS. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. NEVERTHELESS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 17N67W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS NORTH OF 15N EAST OF 68W. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING FAIRLY SLOW AT APPROXIMATELY 5 KT...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEST AND CENTRAL BASIN ANCHORED BY SEVERAL HIGHS OVER THESE REGIONS. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC EXCEPT FOR A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 17N67W...AND THE SECOND ONE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W FROM 20N TO 25N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 55 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THESE TROUGHS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N20W AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 27N24W 26N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA