000 AXNT20 KNHC 072344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAY 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 16W-19W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 6N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ CONVECTION MAKING ITS EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 34W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 7N44W TO 2N47W MOVING W 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 42W-46W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N4W 6N15W 3N25W 4N40W AND INTO NE SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N55W. BESIDES AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA AND OFF THE COAST N OF 1N BETWEEN 4W-13W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER S AMERICA S OF 8N BETWEEN 51W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE W ATLC. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND FLORIDA S OF 28N. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIE OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM NICARAGUA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND OVER THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AROUND THE BASE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR KEEPING MUCH OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. THE FIRST UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER SRN MEXICO. THE SECOND COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 16N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER NRN COLOMBIA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N76W...AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 31N48W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 29N45W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE S OF THE RIDGE. THE FIRST EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 16N67W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 24N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC CENTERED N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W ALONG 28N30W 28N36W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 28N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. S OF THE FRONT...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS INFLUENCED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON