000 AXNT20 KNHC 071736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15W/16W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE AND IS AMPLIFIED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 5N36W TO 2N34W MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH NO LOW LEVEL CURVATURE OBSERVED WITH ANY CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 8N42W TO 2N46W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE HAS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CURVATURE AND IS AMPLIFIED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 5N20W 3N32W 5N46W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 7W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-12W...WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N13W TO 1N17W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 23W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 30W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 47W-59W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 26N. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BANKING OVER THE NW GULF NW OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W TO OFF THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 25N96W. HAZE IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF W LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N84W TO 27N86W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE E HALF OF THE GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION JUST S OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. THE DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE DAYS HEATING WILL ENHANCE SEABREEZE ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PANAMA TO OVER E NICARAGUA. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AND UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC AND COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDING FROM W VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA. A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 21N63W MOVING NW TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 63W-66W. THESE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER DRY STABLE AIR AND THUS CLEAR SKIES. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE/FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 30N54W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 20N59W TO 24N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 21N63W MOVING NW TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM S OF 20N BETWEEN 63W-66W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N26W EXTENDING SW TO 30N35W THEN DISSIPATING TO 29N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE