000 AXNT20 KNHC 070001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 1N-9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ELEVATED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N20W 5N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 12W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 26W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W DRIFTING S. THE TROUGH IS DELINEATED BY A DISTINCT CLOUD LINE WITH NO RAINFALL. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AIRMASS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA S OF COCOA BEACH E OF 81W. A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING PREDOMINATELY 5-10 KT WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N ORIGINATING FROM S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N98W PRODUCING MOSTLY W TO NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY 10-15 KT SE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE NW GULF SATURDAY MORNING WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 75W-78W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 60W-64W...S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 67W-72W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N62W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N40W TO 30N46W 30N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N40W. FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 55W-59W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ABOVE THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 9N45W. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA