000 AXNT20 KNHC 061045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAY 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1040 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7.5N12W 5N20W 4N30W 3.5N40W 4N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 35W FROM 2N TO 8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OFF THE COAST WEST AFRICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 14N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 12W...INCLUDING SIERRA LEONE...LIBERIA...AND COTE D'IVOIRE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS OVER MOST OF THE REGION NOTED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS AIRMASS IS KEEPING DEEP STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. ONLY A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 28N87W TO 28N83W TO 30N81W. BRIEF ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 90W FROM 21N TO 24N. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TROUGH IS DRY WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE WEAK CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 75W AND 81W...PASSING OVER JAMAICA...EAST AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND HAITI. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECT HAS KEPT THESE AREAS UNDER CONTINUOUS SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. A CLUSTER OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL BASIN FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 71W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 75W. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THESE AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N60W...AND ANOTHER 1018 MB NEAR 26N47W. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN...CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN...FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 18W AND 70W. FOLLOWING THAT THOUGHT...ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BASIN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...PROVIDING SOME BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. FURTHERMORE...A SEMI STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT PRODUCING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF THESE STATES NORTH OF 27N. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA