000 AXNT20 KNHC 060548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAY 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3.5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 4N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34W FROM 2N-8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST WEST AFRICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 12W...INCLUDING SIERRA LEONE...LIBERIA...AND COTE D'IVOIRE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS OVER MOST OF THE REGION NOTED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS AIRMASS IS KEEPING DEEP STRONG CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. ONLY A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING SOME INSTABILITY TO THE NORTHEAST GULF INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 28N86W TO 30N81W. BRIEF ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N87W 23N88W 21N89W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS TROUGH IS DRY WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE WEAK CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING OVER JAMAICA...EAST AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND HAITI. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS HAS KEPT THESE AREAS UNDER SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE ON AREAS WHERE THE TERRAIN HAS BECOME SATURATED. PART OF THE ITCZ ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 75W. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N63W...AND ANOTHER 1019 MB NEAR 25N45W. THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER IS SEEN ACROSS THE EASTERN...CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BASIN...FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 18W AND 70W. FOLLOWING THAT THOUGHT...ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BASIN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...PROVIDING SOME BRIEF WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA