000 AXNT20 KNHC 052336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N20W 5N33W 3N40W 4N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33W FROM 2N-8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE... A LARGE LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 1S-13N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 4W MOVING W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 20W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 36W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 31N81W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTH OF VERO BEACH FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 80W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 19N89W 25N88W. A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF IS PRODUCING ONLY 5-10 KT WINDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE AND HAZE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 23N ORIGINATING FROM S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N99W PRODUCING MOSTLY NW TO N UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF INLAND COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 79N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER INLAND PANAMA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 60W-64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FURTHER E BETWEEN 75W-85W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W TO N FLORIDA AT 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N23W TO 26N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 53W-60W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ABOVE THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 11N25W. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA