000 AXNT20 KNHC 051047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1040 UTC... ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W...WESTWARD ALONG 3.5N20W 5N30W 3.5N40W 4N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30W FROM 1N TO 8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 10W AND 17W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND SCATTERED WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED EXTENDING SW FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N84W CONTINUING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 27N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 88W FROM 21N TO 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 26N...AND WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS NORTH OF 24N. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE LAST EIGHT HOUR LOOP IMAGERY INDICATES THIS LONGWAVE IS STARTING TO PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FOUND ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NOTED BY EVIDENT ANTI-CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE CENTER WOBBLING NEAR 20N81W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W...PRODUCING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE BOXED REGION...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS DRAGGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN. PART OF THE ITCZ ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA PANAMA COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 75W. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SEMI STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT PRODUCING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF THESE STATES NORTH OF 27N. THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A NEAR STATIONARY 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N65W. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NEAR 26N48W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N26W CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 27N30W BECOMING WEAK STATIONARY THROUGH 22N35W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG OR NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE IS FROM 21N41W TO 15N60W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA