000 AXNT20 KNHC 050546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC... ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6.5N11W...WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 5N30W 4N40W 3N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29W FROM 1N TO 8N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED AS STATIONARY EXTENDING SW FROM THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N88W CONTINUING SOUTH INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF 26N...AND WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS NORTH OF 25N. THIS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE LAST TWO HOUR LOOP IMAGERY INDICATES THIS LONGWAVE IS STARTING TO PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE SAME REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FOUND ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...NOTED BY EVIDENT ANTI-CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE CENTER WOBBLING NEAR 20N80W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE BOXED REGION...INCLUDING EASTERN CUBA. THIS FEATURE IS DRAGGING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FRO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN. PART OF THE ITCZ ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF 75W. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SEMI STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT PRODUCING WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OFF THE COAST OF THESE STATES NORTH OF 28N. THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE RELATED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A NEAR STATIONARY 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N65W. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NEAR 26N45W. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 30N28W CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO 24N35W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS FRONT. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE IS FROM 23N40W TO 15N60W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA