000 AXNT20 KNHC 042359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N2W 2N15W 5N30W 6N43W 4N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27W FROM 2N-9N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 5W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 45W-47W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N87W 25N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 22N. FURTHER W...A 1015 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMOKE AND HAZE ORIGINATING FROM S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N...AND OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY OF THE GULF SHOWS NO CONVECTION OTHER THAN THOSE OVER THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO TRAVERSE N FLORIDA AND MOVE E TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N73W WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 80W-83W. ELSEWHERE ...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 73W MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO CONFIRMS SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT ITS COVERAGE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N80W ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. FURTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ADVECTING MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N63W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N28W TO 25N35W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 21N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 50W-58W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN E OF 30W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 10N20W. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA