000 AXNT20 KNHC 041045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAY 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1040 UTC... ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W...WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 6N30W 7N40W 4N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24W FROM 2N-10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 14W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 17W AND WEST OF 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR SANTA ROSA ISLAND TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N89W CONTINUING SOUTH AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 26N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT...WHILE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FOUND ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WILL BARELY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MOVING THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NOTED BY EVIDENT ANTI-CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE CENTER NEAR 17N81W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. PART OF THE ITCZ ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN...FROM SAN BERNARDO ISLANDS COLOMBIA...TO BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THESE TWO COUNTRIES. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N65W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N30W CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N37W 24N47W. WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT...BUT NO EVIDENT CONVECTION IS SEEN WEST OF 40W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 55W. TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT...A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE IS ALONG 30N31W 21N40W 18N51W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA