000 AXNT20 KNHC 040548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0550 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6.5N20W 6N30W 7N40W 5N51W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23W FROM 1.5N-10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 14W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH GULF HAS NOW DRIFTED WESTWARD...LOOSING ITS QUALITIES OF A STATIONARY FRONT AND BECOMING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA TO 27N92W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTH TO NEAR 23N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT...WHILE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS FOUND ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER NEAR THE SAME REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...NOTED BY EVIDENT ANTI-CYCLONIC ROTATION AROUND THE CENTER NEAR 17N80W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN 170 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED WEAK ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. PART OF THE ITCZ ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN...FROM SAN BERNARDO ISLANDS COLOMBIA...TO BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF THESE TWO COUNTRIES. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH NEAR 28N63W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N31W CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N40W 24N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 25W AND 55W. TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT...A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE IS ALONG 30N31W 21N40W 18N51W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA