000 AXNT20 KNHC 031714 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 7N20W 4N30W 6N40W 7N50W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 10N53W TO 6N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF GHANA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 4E-2W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 37W-42W...AND NEAR THE EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO NEAR THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL SO OF 4N BETWEEN 43W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM JUST E OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 27N92W BECOMING STATIONARY TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 23N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT COMBINED WITH A SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO GEORGIA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD...30 NM BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 26N. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...IS TO EITHER SIDE OF THE SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT KEEPING SURFACE CONDITIONS FAIR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE FAR E GULF EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC RESULTING IN SE-S WINDS UP TO 20 KT E OF 91W. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO W OF THE FRONT CENTERED JUST S OF THE TEXAS COAST CONFIRMED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT...AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO WEAKEN AS THE PORTION ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND NRN GULF CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY W OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-82W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ WHICH CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER AND CONTINUES EWD TO NRN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR A SHEAR LINE...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THAT EXTENDS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N64W TO 17N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS...AND 15 NM S OF THE AXIS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N66W KEEPING MUCH OF THE W ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 31N34W 24N41W 21N49W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS E OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 29N41W 28N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 54N18W KEEPING THE E TROPICAL ATLC UNDER GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON