000 AXNT20 KNHC 031043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N26W 3N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 50W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 48W-52W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 2W-7W AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 03/0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY S-SW ALONG 25N94W INTO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N94W. THE FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW TO 20N94W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-91W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY STRETCHES FARTHER NE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS FORECAST 20 KT OR BELOW BY LATE MONDAY. WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS A WEAK RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 74W DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FILTRATES TO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG E TO SE TRADES UP TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AROUND 03/0222 UTC. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N57W TO 20N66W THEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N71W. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE...REMAINS ALONG 16N E OF 70W. CONVERGENT NE AND E WINDS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 56W-72W ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ON FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N66W PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 22N W OF 53W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 30W-50W REMAINING LARGELY N OF 26N SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS SW TO 20N46W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE TO DOMINICA AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 30N48W TO 20N62W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N37W TO 28N45W THEN WESTWARD TO 28N52W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO 20N33W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N E OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN